Everything has been redefined in terms of risk. Why? Because our world is filled with uncertainty. Uncertainty is no longer thin; uncertainty is becoming radical, wild, and profound. Some uncertainties can be treated through probabilities, but some uncertainties cannot.

Today, all forms of management such as project management, business management, cybersecurity, financial and investment management, economics, human resource management, production management, engineering, environmental management, supply chain management, etc., are all about the analysis and management of risk and uncertainty.

Therefore, when you misunderstand uncertainty, you miss the threats and opportunities that matter to the viability of your concerns, e.g., business, project, investment portfolio, process, economy, etc. That is double trouble!

Risk management is how mature professionals or experts manage for success in the face of complex uncertainty. The world is now brittle, ambiguous, nonlinear, and incomprehensible; posing serious and messy challenges for decision-makers to make quality decisions, shape behavior, and take effective actions to drive better and sustainable business economics that survive first and thrive in the unknowns.

The arithmetic for thin-tail uncertainty is not the same as for fat-tail uncertainty. The former is among the least of our worries in today’s and tomorrow’s world. The latter is the most important and hardest to handle types of uncertainties.

The whole idea is for your systems of focus to be able to continue to function despite unknowns, continue to perform without knowing tomorrow, or continue to lose less and gain more from shocks and perturbations.

This requires new math, new arts, new mindset, new reasoning, new culture, and new tools. This is the time for every decision maker, operation, and board to become top performers via upskilling and retooling to uncover asymmetries, discover risk, and create a new civilization where humans can generate wisdom faster to survive and thrive in unknowns.