5 Reasons to Worry: Geopolitical Dangers in 2018

Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund Managing Director, has stated back in October last year that the long-anticipated economic improvement is gaining ground with the widest-based expedition since the beginning of the decade. The 5 geopolitical risks that could potentially sabotage any stability or political structure this year, should also be considered.

Greatest new unpredictability: The U.S.
In the race of becoming the next U.S. president, Trump has emphasized that U.S. as a nation should become more unpredictable. This is evident also by the decisions of U.S. diplomacy. An expected resumption of the relations between U.S. and Russia has subsided as Robert Mueller questions Russia’s contribution to the U.S. presidential election outcomes. This has left any collaboration with Russia on ISIS, Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and conflict between the Shias and Sunnis fruitless, hindering that way the stabilization of turmoil. The U.S. decision to transfer its embassy to Jerusalem eradicated any attempts to establish an agreement between Israel and Palestine. Ignoring German chancellor Angela Merkel and UK Prime Minister have alienated NATO allies.

The 2017 National Security Plans of the Trump administration aimed to generate a world of robust, autonomous, and independent countries, each with their own cultures and inspirations flourishing along each other. This tested the proposition that a prevalent U.S. military power will encourage international stability. On the contrary, a perceived void U.S. State Department has plausibly dissolved the U.S. diplomatic power to participate and control arguments. This lack of a key superpower affecting international diplomacy is likely the newest threat to global stability.

Biggest volatile new power: China
Chinese president Xi announced last year in Davos that it is wiser to return into the harbor whenever there is a storm ahead and never pursue the shore on the other side. Discussing the matter of nations sharing international duties, he emphasized climate change control as an international expedition. Within the Asian region, China has overtaken the US in articulating the trade and security terms. As Trump decided to disengage U.S. participation in TPP trade deal, China proceeded with the investment of tens of billions in The Belt and Road act as well as the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) while arming itself with supply networks across Asia and establishing a new trade deal to replace TPP. At this point, China may encounter in North Korea its biggest risk on international rulership.

New dimensions of turmoil: The Middle East
Last year, military forces set by Iran, Iraq, Kurdish militants, Russia, Turkey, Hezbollah and the U.S. have disrobed ISIS off its caliphate but not its terror threats. The area is on the brick of disharmony. Sunni nations perceive Iran surrounding them in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon via Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Bahrain and Egypt are on a feeding frenzy against Qatar. Russia has firmly established itself through military powder and oil diplomacy as the single actor bearing an impact on Israel, Tehran, Damascus and Riyadh but with not sufficient capacity to negotiate viable resolutions excluding U.S. involvement and the opposite. At the same time, UAE and Saudi Arabia have introduced essential amendments to variegate their economies, while stabilizing deep social and institutional matters that could pose a threat to any current business comparable adjustment.

Most tricky global norm: Populism
Could the XXXXXXX-First paradigm become the new trend of international politics? Brexit could be the succeeding test of national gain against intercontinental order of the West. Trump used the America-first formal slogan in his inauguration speech. France, Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands all encountered nationalist parties in their newest elections. Some folks would also state that Russian President Vladimir Putin has reformed modern nationalism, as he grasped the raw views of his people. A side effect of this inward to outward form: inability to allocate international responsibility for 65 million immigrants fleeing their homes, documenting what UNHCR records as the highest levels of displacement till now.

Any of the above issues could upset the world trading program and hinder international development. All these combined emphasize the need for a new global order. Development is scarcely found in arguments, although sometimes it is needed for final harmony. The challenge currently in a landscape of heated conflict is the way/s world leaders will encourage balance. By pulling a one-man show, as evidenced by the past, progress will be sabotaged.